insider@insider.com (John L. Dorman)
- Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker are fighting until the end of the second round of the Georgian Senate.
- Warnock is seeking a full 6-year term, while Walker hopes to unseat the incumbent Democrat.
- Both parties see the Senate runoff as a testing ground ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker will enter the U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia on Tuesday, capping an explosive race in a state that has become the center of the political universe in recent years.
Polling places closed in the state at 7 p.m. EST.
In the general election in November, Warnock won 49.4% of the vote to Walker’s 48.5% – a Libertarian candidate won most of the others – which strength the second round because no candidate reached the 50% of the votes required for an outright victory.
The stakes couldn’t be higher
The result of the Senate run-off will not affect Senate control in January, as Democrats have already secured 50 seats, but the significance of Warnock’s victory for the party cannot be understated.
A victory for the incumbent would not only give Democrats 51 seats ahead of what could be a tough Senate map in 2024, but it would offer them more immediate benefits: the chance to suspend a power-sharing deal aimed at a 50-50 Senate and adding more Democrats to committees, which would allow the party to more quickly confirm Biden’s judicial nominees.
In the longer term, Warnock’s victory would also provide cover for Democratic senators such as Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia to break with the party in critical votes, especially as the vulnerable Democrat faces a potentially difficult for re-election in 2024. A victory for Walker would mean that an already tight 2024 Senate card for Democrats becomes even more difficult.
The candidates
Warnock, the senior pastor of the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, was elected to the Senate in January 2021 alongside fellow Democrat Jon Ossoff.
In an equally divided Senate, Warnock’s vote was critical to the passage of several key pieces of legislation, including the US bailout and the Inflation Reduction Act, both of which passed votes. party throughout the reconciliation process.
Walker — a former University of Georgia football player who won the Heisman Trophy in 1982 and played in the NFL from 1986 to 1997 — has been known in the state for decades.
The Wrightsville, Georgia native was heavily touted and endorsed by Trump early in the race, which helped him pass easily victory in the Republican primary in May.
Walker has been highly critical of Warnock’s record, accusing the senator of siding too much with Biden and seeking to link him to inflation and other economic issues across the country.
But the Republican was obstinate by allegations that he paid for women to have abortions in the past, which he strongly denied. Walker’s business ties have also come in question.
Voting history in Georgia
While Democrats have far exceeded midterm expectations nationally — retaining their majority in the Senate while mitigating losses in the House despite President Joe Biden’s lackluster approval ratings — candidates nationwide State in Georgia not named Warnock failed at the polls in November.
Stacey Abrams — the 2018 midterm star who nearly won Georgia’s gubernatorial race that year — lost in a rematch to Gov. Brian Kemp, come up short to the Republicans by almost 300,000 votes.
And Democratic candidates up and down the statewide ballot, from candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general to secretary of state and insurance commissioner, all lost their respective races – showing that even though Biden may have won the state over then-President Donald Trump in 2020, Georgia has still largely been fertile ground for Republicans over the past two decades.
In January 2021, Warnock won the special election runoff to fill the remaining term of GOP Senator Johnny Isakson, who in December 2019 resigned from his seat for health reasons. (Isakson deceased in December 2021.)
Before Warnock and Ossoff won their races last year, a Democrat had not won a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia since Zell Miller in 2000.
Biden victory in Georgia in 2020 Mark the first time a Democratic presidential candidate has won the state since Bill Clinton in 1992.
The race for money
According OpenSecretsWarnock has raised $150.5 million, spent nearly $126.2 million and has approximately $29.7 million in cash as of November 16. Walker has raised $58.3 million, spent $48.5 million and has $9.8 million left to spend as of November 16.
As of December 5, several dozen political action committees, super PACs, party committees, and politically active nonprofits have met spent more than $234 million litigating for or against the candidates.
The race ranks among the most expensive senatorial races in United States history.