Gulf weather disturbance: Too soon to accurately predict

The KHOU 11 Weather Team is tracking a hot weekend for Southeast Texas with uncertain activity in the Gulf of Mexico for next week.

HOUSTON — By now, you may have seen some images circulating on social media, calling for potential tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico for the week of June 13.

Some forecast models called for a possible area of disturbance to take aim somewhere near the Texas-Louisiana border. But overall, it is much too soon to know anything for sure, or if this system will even develop at all.

As you see the forecast models in your social feeds, it’s important to keep in mind we should stay prepared all hurricane season — not just when something may or may not come our way.

HURRICANE SEASON: Get prepared with checklists, evac routes and more

Overall, this weekend Southeast Texas and Houston can expect dry but hot and humid conditions. Early this coming week we are expecting the return of scattered rain and storms to help cool us off.

Gulf of Mexico / tropics update

The ridge of high pressure responsible for the Texas heat this week will start to back off west allowing for a weak front to swing through for the start of next week. All of this will act as upper level steering currents for deep tropical moisture that will try to develop mid to the latter part of next week near the Bay of Campeche to the southwest Gulf of Mexico:

High pressure out west, low pressure east- which will have the biggest influence.

This forecast is extremely uncertain as models are having a difficult time handling intensity and direction. Water temperature across the central Gulf would be warm enough to support development with low wind sure but along the immediate coast still in the low 80s. 

Bottom line, stay weather aware through next week. If it would develop it would take on the name Bill.

Houston 7-day forecast

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